Cocoa and cashew, 22 October 2026: cocoa surplus shrinks, Tanzania auctions open

Sovran Commodities
Published 22 October 2026

New York cocoa is trading around $5,800 a ton this week, up about 8% on the month, and the rally is about next season's supply. In cashew, Tanzania opened its 2026/27 auctions at Masasi and is targeting a record crop, while Vietnamese processors keep kernel offers steady and margins on raw nut tight.

Cocoa

New York is trading around $5,800 a ton this week, up about 8% on the month, and London December settled at £4,233 on 8 October. The rally is about next season's supply. StoneX sees Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 crop down about 11% to 1.775 million tons and Ghana down around 13%. That cuts its global surplus estimate for 2026/27 to 25,000 tons, from 422,000 the season before.

Demand is picking up too. Q3 grindings rose 14.3% across the main regions, led by Asia at plus 29% and Europe up 3%. Weather adds risk: NOAA puts the odds of a strong El Niño through December at 83%, and parts of West Africa are already running below average rainfall. The brake on prices is stocks. ICE-monitored inventory reached 3.59 million bags on 16 October, the highest in over two years.

At origin, Côte d'Ivoire kept its main crop farmgate price at 1,200 CFA per kilo. Ghana has proposed 2,737 cedis per bag, pending sign-off.

Cashew

Tanzania opened its 2026/27 auctions on 13 October at Masasi, with first lots clearing between 3,040 and 3,310 shillings a kilo. The Cashewnut Board is targeting a record 750,000 tons, up 21% on last season. Cooperatives in Lindi are more cautious after poor flowering in August. Mozambique's crop is forecast to drop to around 146,000 tons.

Vietnam's raw nut import price averaged $1,658 a ton from January to August, up 8% on last year. Ivorian 45 lbs was offered around $1,540 CFR Ho Chi Minh City in September and Ghana 42 lbs around $1,400. Vietnamese processors are holding W320 kernels near $3.10 to $3.15 a pound, so margins on raw nut stay tight.

What we have

Grade 1 Ivorian cocoa FOB Abidjan or San Pedro on CAD, Fairtrade and RA available, and Tanzania RCN from the current crop. Enquiries to egorosipov@sovrancommodities.com.

Sources: ICE settlements and certified stocks; StoneX; NOAA; the Cashewnut Board of Tanzania; Vietnam Customs.