Cocoa, October 2026: Nigeria and Cameroon heading into the EUDR deadline

Sovran Commodities
Published 5 October 2026

Futures fell more than 10% in September and bounced at the start of October. Cameroon's new season is open, Nigeria's main crop trading window has started, and the EU deforestation rules apply from 30 December. This is what it means for raw beans out of Lagos and Douala.

Prices at origin

London December settled at £4,017/t on 30 September, down from £4,588 on 2 September, then jumped about 5% on 2 October to around £4,239. New York moved the same way: $6,290 on 2 September, $5,381 on 1 October, $5,670 a day later. September's fall was about supply. Ivory Coast's 2025/26 harvest came in 30% above the year before, and ICE certified stocks are at their highest in more than two years. Demand isn't helping either: Lindt cut chocolate prices for the second time this year. The October bounce came on Ghana raising its farm gate price and on weather worries.

Cameroon: the ONCC reference on 2 October was 3,084 FCFA/kg FOB, roughly €4,700/t, with exporters buying in Douala at 2,650 to 2,700 FCFA/kg. Farm gate opened the season at 2,750 to 2,900 FCFA/kg at the end of August, before September's slide. The export levy dropped from 225 to 125 FCFA/kg in June, which leaves exporters more room.

Nigeria has no state price, the market is fully deregulated. The clearest visible reference is the AFEX exchange spot, which fell from 6,733 NGN/kg on 7 August to 4,869 NGN/kg on 29 September, down about 28% in under two months.

For context: Côte d'Ivoire fixed its 2026/27 farm gate at 1,200 FCFA/kg, less than half Cameroon's level, after forward-selling more than 1.1 million tonnes of the crop early at low prices. Ghana set GH¢42,400/t, around 75% above the Ivorian price, which raises the risk of beans being smuggled across the border.

Quality and crop

Cameroon closed 2025/26 at 247,914 t marketed, down 20% and the lowest in five years. Raw bean exports fell 35% to 125,469 t. 85% went to Europe, with the Netherlands the top destination. The season ended with 40,446 t in stock, nearly three times the year before, and that stock covers the gap until the new harvest arrives towards the end of the year. Anyone buying in the next few weeks is likely buying old crop, so ask which crop year it is and check moisture and mould before you commit. Most Cameroonian beans grade II, and grade I good fermented beans are a small share of the crop. If you need grade I, ask early and expect to pay for it. Cameroon keeps its ICCO fine or flavour status.

Nigeria's trading window runs October to February. Exports ran ahead of last year over the summer: July shipments were 16,052 t, up 18%. Local grinders are taking more: the largest ran at 82% of capacity in the first half. Heavy rain and black pod were flagged mid-year, so check bean count and mould on early lots.

Côte d'Ivoire's main crop may start 8 to 10 weeks late, arrivals are slow, and farmers have been on strike over the price. Buyers who come up short on early Ivorian beans will be looking at neighbouring origins this quarter.

Logistics

Lagos: vessels were waiting about 4 days at Apapa and 4.5 at Tin Can in August. Truck access, cargo leaving the port, and uneven customs clearance are the bigger bottleneck, so plan for delays beyond the vessel wait.

Douala: vessel waits are shorter, around 2 days in July, but clearance is slow. One study puts the average at 8 days. Earlier this year, EUDR document checks pushed cocoa lots without traceability paperwork from 5 to 7 days up to 10 to 14, while lots in traceability programmes cleared normally. There's a 28-tonne weight limit on trucks and the rainy season is damaging the roads inland.

Freight: the Drewry World Container Index stood at $4,434 per 40ft on 1 October, flat on the week. Exporters in Côte d'Ivoire expect congestion at Abidjan and San Pedro in November and December as the late crop is rushed out ahead of the EUDR date.

What we're watching

EUDR. 30 December is binding: the Commission's May review ruled out another delay. From 15 October, due diligence statements start being assigned to national authorities. Nigeria sits in the standard risk tier. In practice, a lot shipped without farm geolocation can clear at origin and still hit trouble once it reaches the EU after 30 December. In Cameroon, EU buyers are already asking for traceability on 2026/27 purchases, and the ONCC has launched its own traceability platform.

Also on the list: whether the late Ivorian crop and the pre-deadline port rush push European demand towards Nigeria and Cameroon this quarter, ICE certified stocks, Ghana's cocoa board funding, and when Cameroon's new crop starts arriving in volume.

Sovran works raw cocoa beans from Nigeria and Cameroon, FOB Lagos and Douala. Specification by lot on request.

Sources: ICE settlements via Barchart and CocoaIntel; ONCC daily prices and season review; AFEX via Mansa Markets; Reuters; Kuehne+Nagel port data; Drewry; the European Commission.